A couple of observations regarding the primary yesterday: Timshel linked to a DailyKos which went further up or down the chain, depending on your point of view, to a story AP filed, which shows upwards of 2,500 Republicans wrote in a Democratic candidate's name in THEIR OWN primary. Interesting. Of even more interest to me is this, a self-styled "inside the beltway" look at the race by Stirling Newberry. I think it's well worth reading. If you have the time, take a look at the comments as well.
A little discussed aspect thus far is the record turnout of voters, both for the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. This could spell trouble for Bush. Again, take a look at the Newberry article--in particular, note his claim of anxiety among Republican wonks over the inevitability of the lies being exposed (for example, the Administration is working overtime to DENY the 9/11 Commission more time to complete their work--more on that in another post)--and consider it in light of voter turnouts thus far.
Dean's day in the sun is pretty much over, although he has enough money in the bank to stay on the road for a while. He'll represent the progressive wing of the party. The reward for all his hard work will be a prime time slot at the convention.
I was quite impressed with Clark's speech--and again, see the Newberry piece--the Republicans are AFRAID of this guy--but it doesn't look all that good for the general. IMHO: two reasons. One, he focused all his energy on New Hampshire, and couldn't do better than third--and it was essentially a tie for third. Second, while I realize this ain't 1952 (or 1868, for that matter)--in general, no pun intended, generals shouldn't have to submit to the nominating process like mere mortals. Generals get anointed, not nominated. Clark actually having to do all the usual stuff is like seeing Michael Jordan playing minor league baseball. It just doesn't look right.
But as to his speech last night: whoever is writing Wes Clark's material has a nice, strong, progressive persuasion. If Clark can be convinced to campaign for the good of the party come the fall, he might be able to do some real damage to Bush--and position himself for a choice Cabinet slot.
John Edwards didn't hurt himself or help himself too much, with emphasis on the former. He's "all in" come South Carolina, and it will depend on how the cards play out there. I still think he's the odds on favorite for VP on almost any ticket--even Clark's, should the general somehow turn it around, which I doubt will happen. Edwards is another potential thorn in Bush's side. The key thing to remember is that even if Edwards or Clark don't actually move Southern States into the Democratic column, they can keep Bush tied up down here. If Bush has to spend his time protecting his base, that could spell victory for the Democrats.
Joe Lieberman seems to have a political death wish, and that's about all I want to say about him. Either that, or someone is financing him in the hopes that he'll manage to damage the eventual nominee. Lately, a number of folks have been coining words like "Joementum," etc. I saw several over at Pandagon. I don't know--maybe that's the only way to stay awake when discussing the Joester. I'll add my own: Joennoying.
Dennis Kucinich has a similar problem to Richard Gephardt: no eyebrows. Weird. I like the things he says, but he's beginning to resemble a New Age motivational speaker. I wonder if he wins his Rep. seat in Cleveland with the same rhetoric...
Finally, on the now clear "front-runner," John Kerry: one thing that bothers me is that he keeps saying Bush wants to run the election on national security issues. True, the political hacks that are speaking for the Resident are mouthing those words at present. But Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, two true slimeballs, know slime. They ARE slime--see, they've got an unfair advantage in that regard--and, as such, will be as flexible as--well, slime--in sliming Kerry. The strategy will NOT be national security if Kerry carries the day. It will be "as liberal as Ted Kennedy," who occupies a special position as Satan's spawn to the wingnuts. Kerry better have a solid defense ready. If I was his advisor, I'd be looking to cut deals with Edwards and Clark asap: first, no negative campaigning, second, put Edwards on the ticket as VP, and offer Clark whatever he wants, be it State, Defense or whatever--then have BOTH blanket the South this summer and fall. And be ready to fight fire with fire: the consensus seems to be that the nominee shouldn't dirty his message with attacks on Bush, but that doesn't mean underlings can't plant well placed leaks or make some public statements. Staying above the fray doesn't mean that you can't assign some folks to the fray itself.
Can Kerry beat Bush? Of course. Bush is an EXTREMELY weak candidate: the economy, regardless of how much creative accounting is done, continues to be shaky, the war in Iraq is a disaster, the war in Afghanistan, ditto, the war on Terror is a joke. Everything Bush touches turns to lead. Rove's strategy is to keep Bush in the political equivalent of a spider hole--that's how weak the candidate is. Hence, the late convention. The idea will be to put Dubya in a bubble, and keep him from opening his mouth unless he's thoroughly learned his lines. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rove attaches an electric dog collar to Bush when he's being prepped for the trail, complete with
About the only wild card in the race will be the media. Don't count on it, but there's always the small possibility that someone in the Fourth Estate will wake up long enough to realize that even a cheap attempt at investigating the past three years will uncover so many skeletons in the Bush closet that you could have a killer Halloween party (or make a mint supplying the medical sciences). But even if the media continues to hit the snooze button, the fact that voters are actively turning out is a hopeful sign. It could be that while the press comments on the finery, the public notices the emperor really isn't wearing anything at all.
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