Acting 'Residential'

Update(7:00pm) Here's a link to a CNN article that likewise notes the contradictions between Condolezza Rice's statements regarding terrorists using planes as weapons, and the fact that such concerns had been discussed extensively among intelligence and security professionals.

Atrios asks the question "How will Bush actually campaign?" I've been thinking the same thing. From the looks of it, the answer seems to be "as little as possible."

The fact is that Bush is an incredibly weak candidate, and this is reflected on the stump. The "War on Terror" is simply a convenient excuse for the Resident to limit public appearances. The convention was deliberately scheduled later than ever before, and it wouldn't surprise me if Rove manages to somehow keep Bush from debating.

All of Bush's "public" appearances to date have consisted of heavily vetted audiences--and, as we all know, protesters are relegated to "free speech" zones which make a mockery of the First Amendment.

I expect that we'll see a LOT of mud slinging, courtesy of Ed Gillespie and the RNC. Bush himself will do little more than come out "strongly in favor of freedom," while his underlings relentlessly spit out a litany of charges against whoever the Democrats nominate. The real question will be how the media covers the campaign. If they actually report the facts, as opposed to playing the "is Bush 'presidential?' game, there will be real trouble for the Administration.

Interestingly, CBS, broadcasting as I type, reports yet more record voter turnouts in primaries and caucuses, while noting Bush's declining poll numbers. And, wow, they're now saying--finally--that at least a dozen warnings about hijackers using planes as weapons were recorded in the seven years prior to 2001. Duh. They've contrasted this with the statement by Condolezza Rice in 2002 when she said that no one could have expected something like the attack. Hmmn. Of course, this is Saturday--when news is buried.

Meanwhile Bush himself will be coddled by Tim Russert tomorrow, and plans to attend the Daytona 500, thus continuing a trend I first read about in Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail (If I remember right, it was George Wallace that hit the track). I expect Bush will get a better reception than Bill Clinton received in Darlington back in 1992, although it will be interesting to see just what he actually does while at the race.

All in all, though, Bush will have trouble with classic campaigning. He did poorly in 2000, only "winning" thanks to an ongoing media body slam on Gore (who, to be fair, was not exactly a charismatic candidate either), the systematic disenfranchisement of voters in Florida, and a decision by the Supreme Court that Vincent Bugliosi likened to treason. Bush "exceeded expectations" in the television debates by managing to speak in more or less complete sentences, but he made several notable gaffes on the trail, including calling Adam Clymer an asshole, and somehow managing to forget that Social Security was a federal program. Additionally there was his failure to come clean on a drunk driving conviction, and this year the spotlight might finally be brought to bear on his military record (click the link and scroll down).

I expect that Rove will do what any small animal does when cornered: hiss and show his teeth. But remember that this is a sign that the animal is afraid...