Sobering Thoughts

Temperance has never ranked high (no pun intended) on my list of personal qualities--so consider "Sobering" to be more of a figure of speech here.

Anyway, after reading the headlines over the long weekend, along with analysis that broke down both the GOP hatefest and the pathetic candidacy of George W. Bush (who, scarily, is competitive in a race that he should rightfully be losing by a large margin), I took the time to catch up on my summer reading project, a lengthy tome about Algeria.

I managed to knock out roughly another third of the volume, getting to the point where de Gaulle dissolved the Fourth Republic. While I've got a general understanding of what eventually happened, Horne is providing a level of detail that is interesting, even if difficult to recall at times. However, in spite of my limitations when it comes to sponging it all up, here is a very simplified summation of what I've gleaned to this point:

Algeria was a unique situation, of course--very unique. That said, there are things one can learn from studying the conflict, and these things can be applied to the folly in Iraq. And, if history is a guide, it doesn't look good.

The French had far greater success in suppressing the rebellion in Algeria, yet they still came up on the short end of the stick. Now, the wingnuts will simply roll their eyes and smirk about "the French," but the lesson here is unmistakable: a native population in revolt against an outside power (even as the outside power had a degree of tepid support at times among the Algerians of European descent, known as pied noirs)--anyway, a native population stands a good chance of winning--even if the outside power has extraordinarily good intelligence, a large advantage in numbers, a good understanding of the terrain and conditions, and so on. The F.L.N. succeeded (now I'm getting a little ahead of my reading, but the historical record is there) in spite of internicene purges, a lack of support at times among the Arab/Muslim majority, downright hostility from the pied noirs (a good parallel to the pied noirs would be the white population in Rhodesia), etc., etc. And, remember, France had much closer ties to Algeria than we've ever had in Iraq.

If the F.L.N. can succeed in Algeria, in spite of French successes in suppressing the rebellion (one thing the French were far less successful in stopping were acts of terrorism, which should give anyone who knows anything about our situation in Iraq pause), then I'd suggest the Iraqi resistance is in extremely good shape. Consider: in Iraq, the resistance controls entire cities. The best the F.L.N. could do was harass the French in the countryside, and explode bombs in Algiers.

No amount of sidestepping around Iraq--or Afghanistan--during last week's show in New York can change the situation in the Middle East. Whether or not Bush manages to slither his way into a second term, his losses in the two countries will define his presidency--if his economic screw ups don't.