Bush: "Fire is Cool!"

After dealing with technology yesterday, I dragged myself home, opened Volume I of Edward Gibbons "Rise and Decline of the Roman Empire" (I've been feeling the need to read printed books lately), booked a hotel room in NOLA for Monday--hey, it's Mardi Gras after all--then kicked back with the alcoholic beverage of my choice and tuned in the Ted Koppel show. I find Ted less unbearably smug once the mood altering substances take hold. So, the theme last night was Social Security. It looks to be the latest Bush administration toy, now that the really cool shiny thing known as the Operation Iraqi Freedom (or Operation Go Cheney Ourselves) is more rusted than shiny, and thus unworthy of the dauphin's attention--except perhaps for the occasional insistance that it's still HIS toy, so don't get any ideas.

Surprisingly, last night's show all but said that Bush's dire predictions about the "crisis" were, in a word, bullshit. Of course, Koppel couldn't resist suggesting that it was, of course, all Bill Clinton's fault because Bill said something back in 1998 about how eventually the system WOULD need some fixing...

Bush, on the other hand, is acting like we need to blast it to smithereens. Go figure.

I'm not going to get into a numbers battle with this post--most of y'all have seen the figures presented by people with a much better understanding of that than me. But even after listening to two of the more boring guests I've seen on the Koppel show (Ted must've really been looking for stereotypical economists, or maybe he was supplementing the ads his program runs for some sort of sleep aid), it became apparent that this is simply a political game Bush is playing. To underscore this, Koppel ended with--David Brooks--who I think is now called Bobo on the internets. He lived up to that, spewing forth a mix of empty rhetoric and faux populism, couched in language designed to sell the myth of perpetual motion--or at least perpetual prosperity of the kind promised by the Roaring 20's. God, what an asshole.

When the Beavis and Buttheads squeak about the "crisis," well, they're lying. Social Security works. And it will continue to work for some time. Additional revenue will eventually need to be tapped, but the program is fully funded for the next 35 years, and is almost three quarters funded beyond that. That's a hell of a lot more secure than, say, the average home mortgage, which is secure only to the extent that the average homeowner continues to work at a job that allows him to pay the note. But I don't see mortgage brokers announcing that the sky is falling.

But Bush loves to go breaking things (see Iraq). To fund his "plan," he's proposing what is ultimately a reduction in benefits of around 40 percent (i.e., screw the retirees), and massive federal borrowing (taking huge amounts of money out of credit markets that could be used, say, to finance mortgages), and then hoping the ensuing house of cards doesn't collapse (perhaps basing his scheme on Dick "sage" Cheney, who thinks federal deficits no longer matter--by the way, Brooks channeled that sentiment in his closing remarks last night). However, it won't work.

What DOES work is the program as structured--the economy of scale generated by incoming revenue to the system allows it to purchase massive amounts of commercial paper (all US Treasuries), which has the added benefit of keeping US debt right here in the US (as opposed to shipping it overseas--do you think China would NOT use debt leverage if it came to that? Dream on). Revenue to ensure a surplus in the system--or at least a balance--could easily be generated by raising the cap on FICA taxes (currently about $90,000). Growth itself, beyond the pessimistic projections proffered by Bush and the SSA, will also cover shortfalls. In fact, you have to wonder why Bush et al would offer up such Marxist arguments about the "looming crisis" as if they have no faith in the most basic of investment instruments. Why do they hate America?

Finally, on the most important level, Social Security works because millions of retirees, widows, disabled individuals, etc., receive what is by all reckoning a modest stipend each month that allows for more or less independent living. You won't get rich collecting Social Security, but, like with my own grandparents, you can make it each month without having to rely on family members for financial support. That's the LEAST a society as rich as ours can do. Besides, by retiring, the labor market opens up to younger folks who need jobs.

About the only thing that's a "problem" with Social Security is that you can't game the system by relying on connections, contacts, insider deals, and whatnot. Which is probably why Bush hates it so much. It's proof that things can be done successfully the right way--and Bush, deep down, KNOWS he's never been able to succeed like that.