Evacuations/Numbers

I thought I'd do some quick math in light of several things--this WaPo article, Ian's first-person accounts of individuals he's met at the Cajundome, the obvious distinction between rich and poor so graphically displayed in the various news reports--and the insistance by some folks that the problem re: those who didn't evacuate is with bureaucracy, state government, local entities--or, in the mind of someone who must be the dumbest Senator, at least east of the Mississippi, themselves.

My understanding is that 80 percent of the region heeded warnings, which left an estimated 100,000 individuals to face the storm. Of those, some 20 thousand chose to seek shelter at the Superdome and perhaps an equal number at the Convention Center...ok, let's say half that number--conservatively, 30 thousand people.

Assuming a capacity of roughly 50 people per bus, that's 600 buses. Double capacity--say, disallow ANY luggage (no clothes, no personal hygiene items, NOTHING) you can double capacity...300 buses.

According to this cached document, the ENTIRE New Orleans fleet was, as of 2001 (the latest I could find), just over 400 buses total. Basically, just enough to more or less get those out who CHOSE to go to an evacuation location--AND you must assume that ALL buses were in working condition, or at least capable of transit to, say, Baton Rouge.

Add in perhaps 200 school buses or so (and, while I don't know about NOLA, per se, most school bus drivers in the Gret Stet are independent contractors who own their own bus, i.e., the logistics to centrally organize them would be immense)...well, that makes a BARE minimum to evacuate all who were ADMITTED to shelters...at best, perhaps you could cram in more individuals...but, again, try to imagine the logistics of adding even 400 buses to total traffic leaving the city, and I think all but the most delusional would realize that it's an impossible task, even IF the city could somehow have managed to organize this...in basically 48 hours...

Oh, and when do you cease normal routes? 48 hours prior to landfall was still a workday for some--and they take buses to and from work. Who will drive the buses? Will they be paid for their work? Will the drivers be allowed to account for their own families? Will the evacuation proceed from a central point, or will buses pick up people along a route? Who will be allowed to ride the bus? Locals only--or tourists? Just wondering.

And can anyone imagine the consequences of adding even 400 buses to the nightmare traffic scenario that ensued in the actual evacuation?

On the other side of the coin, I noted late last week that Amtrak offered to run special trains out of NOLA when it became apparent a catastrophic storm was poised to hit the city...again, doing some quick math and equally quick research, I see that a basic coach will carry 84 people--let's say, for argument's sake, you could add another 60 or so in an emergency--that's 250 cars. Amtraks entire fleet of passenger coaches is 760 and presumably most of those are NOT in a position to be quickly moved to the area...not that I'm saying an Amtrak evacuation shouldn't have been tried, but I'll surmise that, at best, MAYBE a hundred or so cars could've been pulled into service--if we were lucky. That still leaves you WAY short.

And, while I alluded to this above, I'll say it a little more clearly: who has the kind of money to PAY for this sort of massive undertaking. New Orleans itself? Don't make me laugh. The State of Louisiana? No way (well, one way--MAYBE if the feds cut a decent deal on offshore oil royalties, AND if that money was dedicated to an effort...such a dedication, in hindsight, seems logical enough, but in the pre-Katrina real world, it's not like the Gret Stet doesn't have other problems that might have been prioritized--and then factor in the corruption). Private business? Ha.

That leaves...the federal government. But considering that the government won't adequately fund measures like levee maintenance, well...and, in the end, I just don't think ANY administration since 1965 (the last time a big one truly inundated NOLA) really gave a good goddamn (and that includes the 12 years of Democratic administrations...but also the 32 years of GOP'ers in the top seat).

Finally, there was always the possibilty that NOLA would've been spared--that didn't happen, but suppose the city had been lucky (Jeffrey had a post this past week describing the dread pre-Ivan, which veered eastward at the last possible moment). To use a term common in the private sector, the actuarials just wouldn't add up.

Which is why private business can't and won't do the job...city and State are unable...leaving the federal government as last resort. But, the feds these days have no interest whatsoever in providing that level of service, because of myriad factors: interest in war overseas, interest in tax cuts for the rich, interest in pushing federal dollars to corporate donors...they've pretty much given up on the whole "General Welfare" thing...unless the General is Electric, or Dynamic (or Halliburton).

Because of this refusal to provide such a service, the government has (with probably a good bit of savings) instead turned to PR...for the most part. To be fair, other parts of the government at least issued warnings.

The last two links being well, the truly damning evidence--along with all the evidence that, well, I'm too tired to link to right now, but which we all know: that the federal government was, with almost NO exception, ON VACATION even as it became apparent that this was to be a MASSIVE storm. It wasn't a bolt out of the blue, but there for all to see...if they chose to see.

They didn't.