And Another Thing

On the spin front: watch for this from the Rethuglicans--Guiliani is shamelessly hawking the following talking point: Kerry believes "Iraq is the wrong war, at the wrong time, at the wrong place, and this is the wrong message to send, blah blah blah..."

Funny enough, it IS the wrong war, at the wrong place, at the wrong time.

But the Senator must counter this immediately, lest the media make that "Kerry's Song."

Rudy is also peddling "the mixed message of Kerry" meme. Asshole.

To counter, Edwards did ok, Biden a little better, on the theme that Bush promises nothing but "more of the same," hammering that home. So, who will America believe-- Bush, or their own lying eyes?

Karen Hughes is pushing her own version of Rudy's theme. One thing's certain: Bush is putting the chit that is his entire administration on the Iraq square and hoping the number comes up on the roulette wheel.

Now the lesser lights are being given a chance, under the guise of "here's the spin." No, the spin was the first round folks. These are the B-listers. They're working on the "build media appearance bullet points" of their collective resumes. They'll try, but they neither have--nor are allowed to have--the gravitas of the top dogs...

Kerry, IMHO, MUST immediately point out that he didn't say "wrong war, wrong place, wrong time." He did say "I would never have fought it the way Bush did and now the mess must be cleaned up." He must make that point AND counterpunch on the issue that Bush can only promise more of the same--and Bush has the added drawback of not being able to, well grasp reality. Years ago, that would've pretty much settled things, but...welcome to the 21st century.

If Kerry does manage to get these points across, then that's good news. If not, he will be framed in the same way that happened in August--he's a flip-flopper, his war record's a lie--and he's a possible traitor (watch for that to be the last refuge of any desperate Bush scoundrel).

Kerry can also emphasize that Bush is responsible for the mess in Iraq and the war on terror--indeed, this is the entire Bush agenda. However, it's a weak agenda--it's a losing strategy (literally) if run in Bush's way, and it promises nothing to the American public--except continued hard times (while the rich get richer--but that's for a future debate), or, as Biden and Edwards said, "more of the same," which isn't exactly "optimistic," as Bush tried to claim.

Oh, and did you hear when Bush said something like "Director Mueller comes every day to my office--when I'm in Washington," or words to that effect? What, the guy can't even get to the city where he's supposed to report for work? If Bush loses, look for that to be a "defining moment" (although Dubya mumbled it badly, which means it's less likely to be reviewed).

There's also the whole "body language" thing. C-Span did a split screen--they had to drop Kerry's podium by a significant amount for his and Bush's head to be at the same level. Plenty of folks noticed this, but I don't think it will matter, because I'm guessing the networks for the most part followed the "rules" and only showed one candidate at a time. This was too bad--Bush's reactions, if anyone paid attention, were truly bizarre. I'm not sure what he 'wrote' on the notepad he was allowed to have, but I'd hardly be surprised if it was mostly doodles.

And remember when he said something like "I don't take it personal, I'm a calm guy..."? He did so with all the sincerity of a used car salesman (or, as my sister said in early 2003 a "used war salesman").

I liked the Kerry line that went something like "Bush invaded Iraq after 9/11 was like FDR invading Mexico after Pearl Harbor," but I'm fraid that will be lost, along with the Halliburton line. Oh well. I also thought Kerry really nailed Bush in the "character" exchange (as Nightline put it), putting Bush in a most uncomfortable position.

OK, supposedly the instant polls (ABC & CBS) show Kerry as the "winner" of the debate. Hmmm. I'm not exactly unbiased, and I also know the decision won't truly be rendered for a day or two, but...we'll know if Bush's gambit takes hold depending on how quickly Kerry counters the notion of "wrong war, wrong place, wrong time." Funny enough, it looks like Iraqis will have a tremendous influence on the vote in the United States.

Oh--and is it just me, or did everyone over a certain age cringe just a bit when Kerry said something like "the biggest problem facing America is nuclear proliferation..."? At least he said NU-cle-ur instead of NU-cue-lur (although Bush probably SCORES points down here for that). Ouch. To put this in the best possible light: he didn't attribute it to his daughter...

Then Bush showed his own inability to recall recent history by agreeing with the point, followed by a cheap attempt to push missile defense. He snatched a draw from the jaws of victory on that one, and then blew the question badly on Russia ("VLAD-ih-meer?"--his base doesn't care and those on the fence think that's pandering).

OK, Nightline's on, so I'm gonna check out the last of the cheap TV spin. My prediction? If Kerry really won big, look for punditry along the lines of "it's inconclusive" (sometimes masquerading as 'they each said what we expected'). If Kerry didn't win big--well, the Bush team will play the final trump card of "by not losing, Bush won."

A tie in this case will go to the incumbent. That's a high hill for Kerry to climb, but Bush could stumble. It'd be nice if he did tonight.

One last thought: On C-Span, a Bush supporter just said "President Kerry--uh, I mean Senator Kerry..." That might tell us something. And Rove looks a little out of sorts. He's chanting the party line--but not with any enthusiasm.

That's hopeful.

Final Update (midnight): Oh, and did Bush subsume our national interest to China's? I think he did--more than once. Hmmm.