When the Levee Breaks



In Baton Rouge, we've been able to watch the storm news without having to seriously imagine the possibility of a complete wipeout. That's because, for those of y'all hitting the site from outside the state, BR is pretty far inland--about 150 miles as the pelican flies. We're also on relatively high ground, with elevations ranging from 20 to 50 feet above sea level.

An hour south, though, lies (IMHO) the most unique city in the United States, New Orleans. They're not quite so lucky. If Ivan keeps tracking westward (CrawlingWestward, as Oyster put it), well...there are about a million or so folks who just don't want to think about that right now, even as they prepare to get the hell out of Dodge. The question, however, is: will Dodge be there when they can go back?

USA Today has an article about the doomsday scenario. And a while back, the New York Times had a story and interactive which demonstrated how vulnerable the Crescent City is to bad weather.

For the most part, the city is about 5 to 8 feet BELOW sea level (with some exceptions. IIRC, the French Quarter is actually about a foot or so ABOVE sea level--not that it'll mean all that much in this kind of hurricane). The basin is roughly midway between the river and Lake Ponchartrain (I think one of the neighborhoods is Gentilly), and then there's the water diversion scheme adopted after Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which, again IIRC, would push heavy floodwaters eastward. At the time, few people lived in or around New Orleans East, but that's not the case today.

Additionally, the city is more vulnerable to a heavy hit because coastal erosion has taken a big bite out of Plaquemines Parish, which lies south of the Big Easy. The Mississippi River levee giveth, in the sense that it prevents flooding, but it taketh away because the floods themselves deposit silt that builds up to the point where you've got land to begin with down here. Bedrock simply doesn't exist.

New Orleans has for years gambled on not being hit by the big one. Here's hoping the bullet is dodged once more. If Ivan hits east of the city, there will still be heavy wind and rain, but there won't be quite the monster storm surge. If on the other hand, you get a direct hit--or if Ivan lands a little westward, like around Morgan City or Grand Isle--uh oh.