I Hope it Ain't So

One of Juan Cole's ten predictions for 2006:

9. New Orleans will for the most part not be rebuilt and will increasingly be eclipsed by Baton Rouge. Louisiana as a result will become a solid Red State. The Republican Party has no particular reason to rebuild a predominantly African-American city that reliably voted Democrat, just as its leader, George W. Bush, apparently had no particular reason to implement relief work there with any urgency or efficiency after the flood. Most of the $25 billion in reconstruction aid promised by the Federal government will never arrive.

To be fair, Cole ends by noting

Caveat emptor: The author, a historian, has a fair amount of expertise with the past, but knows nothing out of the ordinary about the future.

Sadly, he's probably right for the most part, although I'd like clarification as to what he means by "eclipsed." I suppose Red Stick will end up larger than NOLA, population-wise--at least for a while--but there's only so much lipstick you can stick on a (Red Stick) pig...and I think even those of us who live here know that.

Hell, I moved here for three reasons: I was sick and goddamned tired of northern winter, I'm originally from a smaller town about an hour and a half to the southwest (that is, after a military childhood)--and BR was relatively close to NOLA. Getting a decent job--and growing, um older--may have sealed the deal, but, believe me, the real thrill of living here was NOT LSU athletics--it was and is proximity to the most unique city in the US.

I hope Cole is mistaken, and as for me, regardless of how things shake out, I know we'll NEVER eclipse New Orleans...but I'm really afraid he's probably right about the Federal promises soon-to-be-forgotten.

Goddamn.