Sunday, October 21, 2007

By the Numbers


Well, shoot: after reading these two Advocate articles I was all set to run with a post titled "The Unbearable Whiteness of Bobby," complete with graphic--well, I hate to waste work...


But then I started doing a bit of number crunching, courtesy of, in order, the Secretary of State's election returns page, the same office's archive,
and the "miracle" of computers 'n stuff, in particular Microsoft Excel...

Hmm...

OK, I've been trying to post the excruciating details, but without boring you with...the excruciating details...for the better part of the afternoon. Well, I guess I'll bore you just a little bit: Jindal scored higher than his 2003 runoff totals in 54 parishes, he gained a total of almost 25 thousand votes, and his totals in northern parishes amounted to a gain of just over 20 thousand. That said, IF--and emphasis on IF--IF everything else had been equal, that would have been just short of an outright majority, and while I'll be the first to admit that looking at the numbers in what amounts to a vacuum is wide open to debate, it's just as possible that, if there hadn't been Katrina, Rita, and the Federal Flood, AND a net loss of around 130 thousand votes overall, we might well be reading about Kathleen Blanco's re-election today...anyway...

OK, if you don't mind a few more stats: from a very quick analysis, and if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me, but I counted Jindal scoring outright majorities in 35 parishes, and pluralities in 25 more. Campbell picked up pluralities in exactly 2 parishes, Georges barely eked out a plurality in Orleans, and Boasso did the same in St. Bernard. In short, it was as clean a sweep for Jindal this time as it was for Blanco in 2003 (when she carried 52 parishes).

Oh, and if anyone's interested, Jindal carried La Salle Parish with a majority.

So, what does it mean? Well, it means a few hours of me not doing chores, for one...otherwise, well, I dunno, but maybe some of y'all might find it interesting, and if I can find a place to post the spreadsheet I'll try to clean it up a bit and do so. Otherwise, well...at least Jindal, through no effort on his part, will assume office at a time when government finances should be surprisingly good--state tax revenues should remain sound as people continue to rebuild and buy things like large appliances, and excise revenues should likewise be decent as the Team Bush train wreck continues to keep oil prices up in the stratosphere. Then, I guess the question becomes whether or not Jindal uses the revenues to invest in the state, or whether he plays the Team Bush game of rewarding glad-handers and cronies...we'll see.

And...one more thing: was it just me, or did Bobby's acceptance speech make noted orator Bill Clinton seem terse in comparison? Just wondering...

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