Nothing to be Seen Here--Except a Complete Fuck Up

Mary is where I first saw a reference to the Jason Vest article that Atrios posted about yesterday. Here's her link. In light of recent polling data showing Bush with a slight lead over Kerry (of whom a commentor at Billmon noted, "the backbone transplant seems to have been rejected"), this serves to underscore a strange dualism in the country: deep down, I think folks know the Iraq war is a disaster, but are too wrapped up in the throes of group-think to own up to it. What's the deal about the stages of grief? If you ask me, the body politic is somewhere between denial and deal-making. Kerry is no more immune to this fallacy than anyone else. Billmon himself has recently posted that Kerry seems to have undergone a "Vulcan Mind Meld" with Joe Lieberman. Anyway, the Vest piece makes it clear that Iraq is GONE. The memo's author notes a number of screw ups by the administration, then, for some odd reason, turns around and suggests that support for Ahmad Chalabi wasn't strong enough. No wonder we're fucked in Iraq: that's the best alternative to Saddam we could dredge up from the slime pit? Chalabi? Hell, he had to import a private security contingent of about five hundred folks just so he could get a few cheers when he makes public appearances. He is Spiro Agnew to Hussein's Richard Nixon.

Meanwhile, I'll just add my voice to the sentiment expressed here by Atrios (who is probably read by everyone who visits this site, but here's the link anyway)--the ridiculousness of the all-war and only-war crowd is manifest when you think about the ultimate costs of the Iraq folly. Costs that, by the way, will never be recouped because there won't be a fix to the disaster. What was bad has now become worse: Saddam was a two bit thug, a tin pot dictator, whose overthrow had opened the door of power to whoever manages to maintain the strongest and most dedicated organization in the country. That happens to be Sadr at present. The US troops are just one more faction amongst the various local, regional, and national aspirants to power. They can hold their own, sure--they've got plenty of firepower. But they have no way to build support--they aren't native. And, worse for Bush, the public in Iraq is not unlike the public right here. They want to be left alone to go about their business. As far as they're concerned, the fighting is between the US and the various armed militias. They're sitting this one out.

Should they decide, though, to take sides, what side does anyone think they'll take? WE don't have ANYTHING to offer. Not security, not jobs, not money--and even if we COULD offer this, we can't provide the assurances that anyone taking the offer won't be shot as a "collaborator." Damn, this is bad.

How bad? Take a look at this editorial from The Virginian Pilot. When you read it, consider: the various bases in the Norfolk area (where I lived as a kid) represent the largest concentration of military in the United States, if not the world. When they see the handwriting on the wall (even as they hold out the slimmest glimmer of hope) then you know it can't be good.