Judging Dubya

Storm Over 9/11 Leaves Swing Voters Less Certain Still is the headline of a New York Times article. Take a look.

The news isn't all positive for Democratic nominee John Kerry, but it's certainly not good for Bush. His "asset," as it is, supposedly his "sincerity" and "straight talking," is being questioned by a number of voters in a critical swing state--Ohio.

Of course, being here in the South, I know all about Bush's so-called "straight talkin:" it's just like you hear with a used car salesman. "What will it take to get you into this war RIGHT NOW? You see, I want you to have this war. You can drive it right off the lot today."

Kerry's problem, believe it or not, is an unfamiliarity with the voting public. That of course will change as his ads hit the airwaves, and as the campaign hits full stride. On the other hand, Bush is well known, and between the flip-flops, the outright lies, and his condescending attitude (did you see Little Lord Dubyaroy the other day in the press room? My god--and I'm not even religious...), he is alienating a number of independent minded people. At a certain point, the scales may well tip heavily against him.

Let's not kid anyone, though: there is a crypto-fascist community in the United States that supports the Crawford Cretin. I'll estimate the numbers at anywhere from about 30 to 40 percent of the voting public (emphasis on VOTING). This is a significant number of people, and they cannot be dissuaded by ANY EVIDENCE. Bush could be found guilty of selling drugs to and then molesting children, but his core support would continue to haul water, drink the Kool-Aid, or whatever metaphor you wish to use.

But these voters don't make a majority. Opposing this group is a roughly equal number of people who are strongly in favor of preserving democratic traditions--especially since this relatively educated group of people are aware of facts regarding 9/11, the war in Iraq, and, indeed the war on terror. They know that the course of action Bush is taking meant the administration was asleep at the wheel in 2001, that Iraq is a stupid diversion--it has cost dearly in lives, money, and the reputation of the United States, both in the Middle East and throughout the world--and that his economic policy of "charge it" will spell big trouble for our nation in the years to come.

So, the election will be decided by a group of swing voters. They don't necessarily follow current events, their political science education likely consists of a single high school civics course, and they are far more interested in matters that DON'T involve the issues of the day. Bush is relying on a reputation for straight talk (undeserved, of course, but...) to appeal to these voters, and the media has been hammering the theme home, at least up to now.

So, it's mildly reassuring to see some chinks in the GOP armor. Now Kerry, and other prominent Democrats--indeed, all the contenders, even the awful Joe Lieberman--need to put their foot in the door and start hammering home some points of their own. Kerry, for instance, need to make sure his vote on the $87 billion supplemental for Iraq is properly explained: he didn't vote against PAYING for the war, he voted CHARGING it on the credit card. The Democrats need to emphasize that good economic policy MEANS protecting high-level jobs--and that Bush is the isolationist, as his policies continue to alienate the REST OF THE WORLD. Finally, it's getting to be time for the Democrats to put together a platform. Don't worry about a shadow cabinet or VP nominee--put together a caucus of all major factions of the party, and come out with a well reasoned, easy to understand set of policies that will move the country forward. These would include universal health care, an energy policy that makes the US more energy independent, strong support for education at ALL LEVELS, and an environmental policy that isn't in bed with the petrochemical industry. On foreign policy, it is critical to emphasize the necessity for this country to work within a framework that is multilateral--and a connection needs to be made between this on a security level as well as on a business/economic level.

This election isn't going to be easy, unless something upsets the apple cart in a big way between now and November. The cynic in me is waiting for the October Surprise, but if by some miracle that doesn't happen, the article referenced above makes it clear that Dubya could well be scrambling come election day. National Security is the ONLY issue he's got, and if he's seen as vulnerable on this--it'll be bye-bye Bush.