Gilliard's Analysis

Steve Gilliard takes the latest news--the helicopter shot down north of Baghdad--to present a systematic analysis of why the Iraq war has turned into such a colossal failure. He identifies seven major points:

1. The military was unprepared to fight a guerrilla war.

For example, check out this Guardian article, noting that military exercises in 2002 were rigged. Guerrilla tactics on the part of the "enemy" commander were prohibited. Gilliard notes the lack of auxilliaries, i.e., genuine allies (as opposed to the ridiculous "Coalition of the Willing")--they could have provided the sheer numbers that Paul Wolfowitz, in a fit of hubris, declared were "wildly off the mark." I dunno--maybe Wolfo was having a bad hair day, or something.

2. The size and makeup of the resistance

They call it "Baathist remnants," "Islamic extremists," "Foreign elements," "Dead enders," etc., but the facts belie this. The resistance has at least SOME support. People not actively fighting are at the very least looking the other way. This is a disaster for the US, and particularly the Bush war planners, who assumed our soldiers would be welcomed with open arms. Now, with all the destruction resulting from 2+ years of combat, you can bet the Iraqi people would just as soon see us gone so they can work out their own issues of security and government.

Bush's kumbaya rhetoric about tyranny, democracy, and how the latter isn't just for white people anymore is profoundly ignorant and more than a little racist. His patronizing attitude (which filters down throughout the administration) combined with the lethal force--and inevitable consequences, i.e., death, destruction, and chaos, bring about a totally understandable reaction from Iraqis--a negative one. Geez--would YOU want the equivalent of an Oklahoma City type horror every few days?

3. Weapons

Gilliard points out that the Iraqi forces are remarkably well armed, yet another consequence of the piss-poor planning by Team Bush. Bypassing--and NOT securing--weapons dumps was profoundly stupid.

You can't blame the tactical commanders--they simply didn't have the numbers of soldiers available to do this. But again, the consequences are severe--insurgents can do a lot of damage with what basically amounted to a giveaway.

4. Intelligence

It's quite clear we simply don't have the intel resources to counter insurgent actions. It's also quite clear that the insurgency, on the other hand, DOES have good intelligence. Those they identify as collaborators are killed (sowing fear among the rest of the population), Iraqi police, security, and armed forces are thoroughly infiltrated, etc. One big drawback for the US is the simple lack of qualified translators--which can truly make things difficult. This is yet another example of godawful planning that went into this invasion--planning based in utter arrogance.

5. Wrong equipment

Gilliard's words: But the critical problem is that the US doesn't have the vehicles to fight this war. The tanks are too big, Humvees rolling targets and weighted down with field-expedient armor, too few troops with the right rifles and body armor and most of all not enough infantry. And what is the US debating? Missile systems and new ships.

6. Air Im-mobile

Helicopters haven't been used with the numbers, tactics, and frequency generally expected in this kind of conflict because they are in fact extremely vulnerable to relatively simple weapons--RPG's and SAM's.

7. Declining Morale

Recruitment is WAY down (duh--few clear minded people will consider joining the Army or Marines right now. Consider: who is MORE likely to be put into a combat situation--a fresh recruit or a trained specialist that the Army has put a heavy investment into?). Iraq is also a hell of a place to be in--all the usual outlets that the military uses to blow off steam don't exist. Plus, you're in an urban combat environment, i.e., it's high stress.

Gilliard believes this is slowly grinding the US Army to death. And the Rethuglican Congress is already pissing on the veterans--even before they come back home.

It makes for a very ugly situation.