Makes Sense

Late UpdateWatching Kerry's speech again. Max Cleland is on the stage with him. Another individual on the short list for Vice Presidential candidates, if you ask me.

A few quick thoughts on Iowa: John Kerry seems like a good second-choice for a lot of folks. Am watching his speech on C-Span, and haven't looked at the pundits or weblogs...so whatever I write is based on the opinion of one.

Kerry made an out-in-the-open appeal to Gephardt voters--sounded a little like a eulogy. I wonder if he and Gephardt made some sort of deal in the end like the one between Edwards and Kucinich. Watched a little of C-Span's coverage of one precinct but there were plenty of dead spots and I ended up viewing the PBS show on Martin Luther King, Jr.

Gephardt is on now--Channel 9 reported he dropped out, and that's what it sounds like right now. The local channel in Iowa that C-Span is airing has head shots of the remaining seven. All they needed was a graphic of the congressman with an "X" through it.

And now they're going to the phones. Republicans will march in lock-step declaring Kerry too liberal or two northern, which to them means the same thing. They've only taken a couple of Democratic calls so far, so no trend there yet. There's an Iowa-line and a caller is giving a blow-by-blow account of the evening (he started with Kucinich, but ended up with Edwards).

Al Giordano has been forecasting a Kerry comeback for a long time, and he got it right on this one. Whether it will propel him to a comeback in New Hampshire is open to question.

Saw just a little bit of the media coverage of Dean at the Martin Luther King, Jr. celebration. I keep reading conflicting stories as to what was happening at the event. This is bad enough, but the video was worse. (Note: I hate having to think about politics in terms of twenty-seconds of video and sound bytes, but sadly that's become the case).

The Republicans will almost certainly resurrect old footage of Kerry--that is, if Iowa portends a trend--from his V.V.A.W. days in an attempt to make him less palatable to Southern voters.

As for votes breaking for Edwards? I don't know what to think. Certainly some Kucinich votes helped, but there was more than to it than that. The turnout in a number of places was high, according to the C-Span callers who attended. Edwards might also be another good second-choice here--Southern, with a 'positive' message, etc. etc. etc. Clinton without the baggage, but look for the Republicans to tar-and-feather him with the "trial lawyer" smear.

OK, maybe Kerry didn't cut a back-room deal with Gephardt--just saw Edwards give the same eulogy almost line-for-line. Sounds like the winning coach putting in a kind word for the vanquished team.

Edwards invoked the name of JFK--Kennedy, that is. Am thinking that John F. Kerry is said to have self-consciously used the coincidence in his youth--again, red meat for the Republicans, though a good campaign manager should be able to deflect that.

Edwards will have to raise some money quickly if he wants to benefit. Otherwise, in spite of his denials, look for him on a short list of Vice-Presidential candidates. Admission: I tuned into Nightline just in time to catch a beaming John Edwards attributing his showing to essentially the power of positive thinking. It could work...but the Republicans will try to hammer him on national security issues.

Ted's got Dean on the air now: he began with an Abe Lincoln adage, and is playing nice-cop. Dean is trying to turn chicken-shit into chicken salad. He's not displaying any sign of "weakness" or "irony" which is probably the best strategy for now. But now he's invoking the ghost of Harry Truman, which hasn't been a good sign for any candidate since Truman himself.

Kerry gets his two minutes. He's got the presidential lingo down. One thing I've noticed about the Senator is that he always manages to speak a lot but say little. Now, to his credit, he just went through a laundry list of accomplishments and promises. He just hit Bush hard with a number of statements, and nicely summed up his qualifications. Again, if this actually translates into a groundswell of support, he'll have to get the hits on Bush to stick while somehow deflecting a Shock-and- Awe-style barrage of charges from the RNC. This could get interesting if Bush's military record became an issue--this could get REAL interesting--especially watching the Republicans--they will pull out all the stops on all fronts to keep the Lt. AWOL material--and the embarrassing "Mission Accomplished" fiasco--out of the realm of media scrutiny. That could get nasty.

I'll be honest: I thought Dean had this thing pretty well wrapped up, but am beginning to consider otherwise. Of course, the primary process is different from tonight, and he's still got a huge money advantage. He's also the de facto spokesperson for the progressive wing of the party. But I wonder if Iowa portends a trend that will force progressives to look to a compromise: accept Kerry or perhaps Clark--truly the wildcard in the race now--in order to forge a coalition large enough to defeat Bush.

Maybe Joe Lieberman will simply drift away, but I doubt it. He'll go all-in for New Hampshire, and hopefully drop out after a dismal showing, thereby keeping him from sniping away in his droning manner at whoever the front-runner is...

Democrats don't need Joe generating Republican talking points. They'll be working overtime throwing mud on their own, without Joe's help. And, let's face it, this will be a difficult election. Bush, for all his weaknesses as a candidate, will benefit immensely from incumbency and from the national security crisis the Republicans have manufactured. Whether or not there's an October "surprise"--and I'm just cynical enough to believe they'll try one if they think they can get away with it (there's the small possibility that a genuine October surprise could land in Dubya's lap)-- they'll do their best and then some to make sure that no one but a carefully vetted studio audience--or captive audience in the case of a "presidential" event--will have any contact with their candidate. Bush will run the most scripted campaign in history. He'll have as few debates as possible, and will do everything short of physically wrapping himself in a flag--again, in front of a carefully vetted studio audience--while making sure we all see the big plane, the presidential seal, etc. etc.

I guess that a lot of words about one "vote" in the process, but why the hell not add my (adjusted for inflation) two cents worth. To be honest, there were elements of the caucus that I thought were interesting. It can be good to participate in the political process in a slightly more active matter than casting a ballot.

Cut back to C-Span again to watch the Dean speech in longhand. He's preaching hard and heavy to the converted. The strain in his voice is evident. It's probably from sheer exhaustion and a too many speeches, but the pundits will talk about his red-face and shrill tone. And yeah, there's gotta be a good bit of sting as well. This was his to lose as little as a week ago, and he managed to do just that. Again, though, his organization and financing make it hard to say he's through, although the talking heads will paint New Hampshire as a make-or-break State for HIM now.

As I've said before, I'll support anyone who can defeat Bush, because that is the larger issue. I thought Dean had a lock, now it looks like an open race. None of the candidates have blown me away, but I'll take any of them before Bush, who has managed to wreck the economy, develop A.D.D. in regards to eliminating Al Qaeda in favor of "the quagmire strategy" in a foolish war against Iraq, and generally show an arrogance and partisanship that neither befits the office of the Presidency in general nor speaks anything but contempt for the public, considering the manner in which this Administration took office.

Now I'll read a little bit of what others are saying. Later.